Election of New Israeli PM Sets Middle East on Crash Course
The departure of Benjamin Netanyahu signals that volatility and next steps are ahead for the markets, Israel, and the Middle East.
On May 4th I wrote about the new volatility regime and setup in the VIX for future breakout, signaling a large event and potentially the end of the entire bull market from March of 2009. The secret key to that may be very well tied to Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu.
Benjamin Netanyahu took over as Israeli PM in March of 2009, the bottom of the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis bear market and the beginning of a bull market that has lasted to today. It may be no coincidence that his departure coincides with my June 15th target for volatility breakout. Netanyahu left office on June 13th. Recent changes in Israeli leadership signal broader changes for global order.
In my book, End Game Part II, I speak to how markets coincide with historic events and macro pivots. My timing targets for market breakdown were agnostic and simply based on technical analysis. However, the removal of Israel’s key leader points to a broader change in the Middle East and a new era. Israel is the epicenter of God’s timetable so major changes of this order have broader implications. I would not be surprised to see a market crash or significant market turmoil over the next 12 months.
With the US Embassy having been moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and the Abraham Accords having been brokered by the Trump administration by the way of Jared Kushner, time had run it’s course for Netanyahu.
Naftali Bennett takes over with a background in tech and entered politics in response to the Lebanon War , a war in which he vowed to enter the political fight. PM Bennett comes into the position with a wealth of military, intelligence, and banking tech experience.
Keep in mind that Bitcoin launched in 2009, the same year Netanyahu took office. All to say, what I have been writing about and waiting for may have been tied to Netanyahu leaving office which signals next steps in Israel. Should a larger engagement breakout in the north of Israel, PM Bennett would be the man to take the fight to the North in a way only seen in Gaza. This new leader also has a fintech startup background and understands the importance of risk assessment and authentication.
The volatility index continues to remain compressed in what appears to be the final stage of consolidation. Though many will point to central bank practices the fact remains that markets move in time cycles and those cycles coincide with historic change.
The bottom line is that Bennett is pro tech and has a ‘stand out of the way’ approach to tech. Israel leads the world in tech startups and the acceleration of tech will likely only accelerate under his rule. He also remembers very well the Lebanon War and may be even heavier handed than Netanyahu militarily. His party, Yamina, is not only right but leans far-right with ties to Religious Zionism, firmly opposing a Two-State solution. Regarding sovereignty, the party plans to end the military administration of Judea and Samaria while working towards the application of Israeli sovereignty to the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley.
In short, the Netanyahu rule began in March of 2009 which coincides with the beginning of the current bull market and the launch of Bitcoin. His departure signals, in time, that future volatility and next steps are ahead for the markets, Israel, and the Middle East.
Want to know more about Naftali Bennett? I recommend listening to the Bootstrap Podcast. His guest appearance gives insight into his early tech startup days and beliefs surrounding Israel, COVID, etc.
As stated last time, the January 2018 and March 2020 market crashes all preceded significant events in Israel. In October of 2018 the US Embassy was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In August of 2020, Jared Kushner would broker the Abraham Accords.
What is next? Time will tell.
*Disclaimer: Nothing mentioned here is investment advice. This is market observance and should be taken as opinion and not investment advice.